| Metadata | Details |
|---|
| Publication Date | 2024-05-24 |
| Journal | Humanities and Social Sciences Communications |
| Authors | Yutong Sun, Shangrong Jiang, Shouyang Wang |
| Institutions | Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, University of Hong Kong |
| Citations | 4 |
| Analysis | Full AI Review Included |
- Modeling Framework: A Diamond Environmental Impacts Estimation (DEIE) model was developed to forecast Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, mineral waste, and water usage in the global diamond industry from 2030 to 2100 under various Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs).
- Environmental Footprint Contrast: Traditional mined diamond production exhibits an environmental intensity vastly exceeding that of lab-grown diamonds (LGDs), generating 57,000 g CO2-eq, 2.63 tonnes of mineral waste, and 0.48 m3 of water per carat.
- LGD Sustainability Potential: LGDs produced using clean energy sources reduce the environmental footprint to negligible levels: 0.028 g CO2-eq, 0.0006 tonnes of mineral waste, and 0.07 m3 of water per carat.
- Projected Mitigation (2100): Under the optimal substitution scenario (Upside SSP2-2.6), LGD adoption is projected to reduce annual GHG emissions by 9.58 Mt and decrease mineral waste by 421.06 Mt.
- Resource Conservation: The mineral waste reduction achieved by LGD substitution is equivalent to saving 714 million cubic meters of landfill space annually.
- Economic Viability: LGD substitution is identified as a cost-saving pathway for sustainability, with LGDs having an initial cost one-third and a final product cost 42% less than mined diamonds.
- Future Projections: Without intervention, the global diamond industryâs annual GHG emissions are projected to reach 13.26 Mt, mineral waste 582.84 Mt, and water usage 107.95 million m3 by 2100 (SSP2-2.6 scenario).
| Parameter | Value | Unit | Context |
|---|
| Mined Diamond GHG Intensity | 57,000 | g CO2-eq/carat | Traditional mining process footprint. |
| Lab-Grown Diamond GHG Intensity | 0.028 | g CO2-eq/carat | Using clean energy sources (HPHT/CVD). |
| Mined Diamond Mineral Waste | 2.63 | tonnes/carat | Waste generated from extraction (gangue, tailings). |
| Lab-Grown Diamond Mineral Waste | 0.0006 | tonnes/carat | Waste generated from synthesis. |
| Mined Diamond Water Usage | 0.48 | m3/carat | Potable and non-potable water consumption. |
| Lab-Grown Diamond Water Usage | 0.07 | m3/carat | Water consumption for synthesis. |
| HPHT Synthesis Temperature | ~1500 | °C | High-Pressure High-Temperature method. |
| HPHT Synthesis Pressure | ~1.5 million | psi | High-Pressure High-Temperature method. |
| CVD Synthesis Temperature | ~800 | °C | Chemical Vapor Deposition method. |
| Projected GHG Emissions (2100) | 13.26 | Mt CO2-eq | Global industry forecast, SSP2-2.6 scenario. |
| Projected Mineral Waste (2100) | 582.84 | Mt | Global industry forecast, SSP2-2.6 scenario. |
| Projected Water Usage (2100) | 107.95 million | m3 | Global industry forecast, SSP2-2.6 scenario. |
| Maximum Annual Landfill Space Saved | 714 million | m3 | Result of LGD substitution policy (2100). |
| LGD Initial Cost Ratio | 1/3 | N/A | Initial cost relative to mined diamonds. |
| LGD Final Product Cost Reduction | 42% | N/A | Final product cost reduction relative to mined diamonds. |
- Data Compilation: Historical diamond production data (1970-2020) was sourced from the World Mineral Statistics (WMS) archive for the top five producing countries (Australia, Russia, Botswana, DR Congo, South Africa) and other regions.
- Environmental Indicator Quantification: Environmental impacts (GHG emissions, mineral waste, water usage) were standardized using intensity factors (e.g., kg CO2-eq/carat) derived from previous studies (Frost & Sullivan, 2014).
- DEIE Model Specification: The annual environmental indicators (EIi,j,t) for country i and indicator j were modeled as a linear function of country-level Gross Domestic Product (GDPi,t) and Population (POPi,t) using regression analysis.
- Scenario Selection: Projections (2030-2100) utilized two combined Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs):
- SSP1-1.9: Sustainable future, aiming for 1.5 °C warming limit.
- SSP2-2.6: Moderate challenges, focusing on adaptation over rapid mitigation.
- Lab-Grown Diamond (LGD) Scenarios: Four scenarios were defined based on the SSPs and two LGD market share growth rates:
- Baseline (0.42% annual growth): Based on historical LGD market penetration.
- Upside (0.84% annual growth): Assumes doubled growth due to policy support and environmental awareness.
- LGD Production Methods: The analysis incorporates the two primary LGD synthesis routes:
- High-Pressure High-Temperature (HPHT): Simulates deep earth conditions (~1500 °C, 1.5 million psi).
- Chemical Vapor Deposition (CVD): Utilizes a sealed chamber with carbon-rich gas heated to ~800 °C.
- Sustainable Luxury Supply Chains: Provides quantitative data supporting the transition to LGDs to meet Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) criteria and consumer demand for ethically and sustainably produced jewelry.
- Industrial Decarbonization Strategy: Offers a proven, cost-effective pathway for the diamond industry to achieve significant GHG mitigation targets (up to 9.58 Mt CO2-eq reduction annually) without compromising production scale.
- Resource Efficiency and Waste Management: Directly informs policy decisions regarding mineral waste reduction, offering a solution to minimize the massive accumulation of gangue, wall rock, and tailings associated with open-pit mining.
- Water Stewardship: Demonstrates substantial water conservation potential, critical for mining operations located in water-stressed regions (e.g., Botswana and DR Congo), by reducing water usage by over 10 million m3 annually.
- Green Technology Investment: Justifies capital investment in clean energy-powered HPHT and CVD facilities, promoting technological advancement in materials synthesis that is safer and more environmentally benign than traditional mining.
View Original Abstract
Abstract Mining diamond poses significant and potentially underestimated risks to the environment worldwide. Here, we propose a Diamond Environmental Impacts Estimation (DEIE) model to forecast the environmental indicators, including greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, mineral waste, and water usage of the diamond industry from 2030 to 2100 in the top diamond production countries under different Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). The DEIE projection results indicate that the annual GHG emissions, mineral waste, and water usage of the global diamond industry will reach 9.65 Mt, 422.80 Mt, and 78.68 million m 3 under the SSP1-1.9 scenario, and 13.26 Mt, 582.84 Mt, and 107.95 million m 3 under the SSP2-2.6 scenario in 2100, respectively. We analyze the environmental impact heterogeneities and the associated driving factors across the major diamond production countries identified by our DEIE framework. In addition, we find that lab-grown diamonds can reduce annual GHG emissions, mineral waste, and water usage by 9.58 Mt, 421.06 Mt, and 66.70 million m 3 in 2100. The lab-grown diamond substitution policy can annually save 714 million cubic meters of landfill space, harvest 255 million kilograms of rice, feed 436 million people, and lift 1.19 million households out of hunger. The lab-grown diamond substitution policy could contribute to the diamond industryâs GHG mitigation and sustainability efforts in a cost-saving manner.